China Macro Weekly — Episode 2: The Retail Freeze, the LPR Plateau, and the Ticking Truce

April's economic data landed with a thud — retail sales hit their lowest in over three years, fixed-asset investment swung back into contraction, and industrial output slowed sharply. The PBOC kept rates frozen for a 12th straight month. In property, first-tier cities showed green shoots in resale prices even as investment slumped deeper. On trade: the US-China truce clock is ticking toward November, Bessent says Washington is "not in a rush" to renew, and rare earths are quietly becoming a pressure point. We unpack what all of it means for the trajectory of China's economy in 2026.